the probability of survival


P.1198 - §8 I have observed a Thought Adjuster indwelling a mind on Urantia who has, according to the records on Uversa, indwelt fifteen minds previously in Orvonton. We do not know whether this Monitor has had similar experiences in other superuniverses, but I suspect so. This is a marvelous Adjuster and one of the most useful and potent forces on Urantia during this present age. What others have lost, in that they refused to survive, this human being (and your whole P.1199 - §0 world) now gains. From him who has not survival qualities, shall be taken away even that experienced Adjuster which he now has, while to him who has survival prospects, shall be given even the pre-experienced Adjuster of a slothful deserter.

What is the probability that a typical Urantian will survive and go to the mansion world?

Of course, the UB does not tell us the likelihood of an average Urantian to survive.

First, the probability that a typical Thought Adjuster will fuse with a mortal is lower than that a typical Urantian will fuse with his or her Thought Adjuster for the simple reason that a Thought Adjuster is sometimes loaned to a savage in a primitive world with no chance of survival. Also, a virgin adjuster going to a primitive world for the initial assignment has virtually no chance to fuse with the subject.

Even if a mortal fails to survive, he still has another chance for spirit-fusion or Son-fusion. The UB also notes (p. 568) that in Nebadon almost ninety percent of inhabited worlds are ajuster indwelt while in another, probably much younger universe, about half harbor adjuster indwelt beings. Son- or Spirit-fused mortals are qualitatively important, but not quantitatively. So let us ignore the small differences they would make on the probability of survival.

Among the seven superuniverses, Orvonton is the youngest, and Nebadon is one of the younger universe in Orvonton. In other words, the proportion of inhabited planets with adjuster indwelt beings should be much higher than 90% in the seven superuniverses. Recall that in older universes, the probability of survival is higher. In Orvonton, nonbreather planets which belong to series two worlds account for less than seven percent (p. 563).

Let us begin with a liberal estimate of the probability of survival. Assume that among the 105 indwellings, only 10 were on non-adjuster fusion worlds. Then the net indwellings on planets with adjuster friendly mortals is 95.

If the probability of failure (= 1 - the probability of survival) were 99 percent, the probablity that the adjuster would not fuse with 94 mortals consecutively is .9995 = about 38.5%.

If the failing probability were 90%, then the probability that the adjuster fails to fuse with 95 mortals consecutively in adjuster-friendly planets is .995 = about 45 in a million, which seems to be too high for Urantia.

If the probability of nonsurvival in a single indwelling is 80%, then the probability that the adjuster will fail 95 times consecutively is about .6 in a billion, or 1.2 individuals in 2 billion.

At the time of indicting of the Urantia revelation, the world population was about two billion people, and the Solitary Messenger probably meant to say there was only one Thought Adjuster who had that many indwelling experiences. If this had been the case, a presumptive estimate of the so-called chance of mortal survival (p.447) on a single planet is 20%, if survival is a random variable, independently and identically distributed across indwellings.

The advent of Jesus has raised this probability considerably, provided that the life and teachings of Jesus had changed the behavior of the individual host of the indwelling Thought Adjuster.