What is the probability that a typical Urantian will
survive and go to the mansion world?
Of course, the UB does not tell us the likelihood of an
average Urantian to survive.
First, the probability that a typical Thought Adjuster
will fuse with a mortal is lower than that a typical Urantian will fuse
with his or her Thought Adjuster for the simple reason that a Thought
Adjuster is sometimes loaned to a savage in a primitive world with no
chance of survival. Also, a virgin adjuster going to a primitive world
for the initial assignment has virtually no chance to fuse with the subject.
Even if a mortal fails to survive, he still has another
chance for spirit-fusion or Son-fusion. The UB also notes (p. 568) that
in Nebadon almost ninety percent of inhabited worlds are ajuster indwelt
while in another, probably much younger universe, about half harbor adjuster
indwelt beings. Son- or Spirit-fused mortals are qualitatively important,
but not quantitatively. So let us ignore the small differences they would
make on the probability of survival.
Among the seven superuniverses, Orvonton is the youngest,
and Nebadon is one of the younger universe in Orvonton. In other words,
the proportion of inhabited planets with adjuster indwelt beings should
be *much higher* than 90% in the seven superuniverses. Recall that
in older universes, the probability of survival is higher. In Orvonton,
nonbreather planets which belong to series two worlds account for less
than seven percent (p. 563).
Let us begin with a liberal estimate of the probability
of survival. Assume that among the 105 indwellings, only 10 were on non-adjuster
fusion worlds. Then the net indwellings on planets with adjuster friendly
mortals is 95.
If the probability of failure (= 1 - the probability of
survival) were 99 percent, the probablity that the adjuster would not
fuse with 94 mortals consecutively is .99^{95} = about 38.5%.
If the failing probability were 90%, then the probability
that the adjuster fails to fuse with 95 mortals consecutively in adjuster-friendly
planets is .9^{95} = about 45 in a million, which seems to be
too high for Urantia.
If the probability of nonsurvival in a single indwelling
is 80%, then the probability that the adjuster will fail 95 times consecutively
is about .6 in a billion, or 1.2 individuals in 2 billion.
At the time of indicting of the Urantia revelation, the
world population was about two billion people, and the Solitary Messenger
probably meant to say there was only one Thought Adjuster who had that
many indwelling experiences. If this had been the case, a presumptive
estimate of the so-called chance of mortal survival (p.447) on a single
planet is 20%, if survival is a random variable, independently and identically
distributed across indwellings.
The advent of Jesus has raised this probability considerably,
provided that the life and teachings of Jesus had *changed the behavior*
of the individual host of the indwelling Thought Adjuster. |